Restricted · Institutional · Audit-ready
Access & Engagement
FP3 produces restricted-distribution analytic papers and advisory for institutional readers. Probabilistic, calibrated, sourced — and logged before the outcome. This page sets out what we deliver, the engagement tiers, and how we work.
This page is for readers who commission or subscribe to the analysis. If you are a media outlet, think-tank or research desk looking to syndicate, co-produce or partner, see
01 · Engagement tiers
Forms of engagement
Indicative ranges in EUR, net of VAT. Final scope is fixed per mandate. We deliberately cap retainer relationships to protect attention and independence.
Single deliverables · one-off
Tier I · Briefing
Executive Briefing
One-off · 2–4 pp
A single decision-ready briefing on one question. Each briefing runs the core FP3 chain: source ingestion and Admiralty grading (source integrity), pattern recall against prior cases (case memory), weighted scenario construction (FP3 Method), and a metacognitive calibration pass (calibration) that bands confidence and filters overclaim. Condensed to the format a board reads in ten minutes — backed by the full analytic chain, not an opinion.
Un briefing decision-ready su una singola domanda. Ogni briefing percorre la catena FP3 di base: ingestione e grading delle fonti (source integrity), recupero di pattern su casi precedenti (case memory), costruzione di scenari pesati (FP3 Method) e un passaggio di calibrazione metacognitiva (calibration) che banda la confidenza e filtra l’overclaim. Condensato nel formato che un board legge in dieci minuti — sostenuto dall’intera catena analitica, non un’opinione.
- One focused analytic question
- Scenario set with weights + triggers
- Early-warning indicators
- Delivery 5–10 working days
Tier I · Paper
Dossier · Extended Paper
One-off · 40–70 pp
The full analytic build behind a thesis. Runs the complete pipeline — source integrity source grading, case memory empirical memory, FP3 Method scenario tree, calibration red-team and confutation, FP3 forecast — with declared probabilities, pre-committed resolution criteria, an early-warning monitor, and a Calibration Ledger entry that puts the forecast on record before the outcome. Sourced annexes included.
La costruzione analitica completa dietro una tesi. Percorre l’intera pipeline — grading fonti source integrity, memoria empirica case memory, albero di scenari FP3 Method, red-team e confutazione calibration, forecast FP3 forecasting — con probabilità dichiarate, criteri di risoluzione pre-committed, un monitor di early-warning e una voce nel Calibration Ledger che mette la previsione a verbale prima dell’esito. Annessi documentati inclusi.
- Full sourced analysis + annexes
- Confutation & pre-mortem
- Ledger entry · ex-ante, dated
- Executive briefing included
Continuous engagement · annual
Tier II · Series
PULSE INSIDER · Annual Access
Annual · named recipient
Standing access to the restricted PULSE INSIDER series across the year, plus periodic executive briefings. Every paper carries the full five-protocol stack and, where the domain requires, structured buyer-, product- and source-quality assessment. Calibration Record access included. Distribution is named-recipient only.
Accesso continuativo alla serie riservata PULSE INSIDER per tutto l’anno, più briefing esecutivi periodici. Ogni paper applica l’intero FP3 Method e, dove il dominio lo richiede, una valutazione strutturata di qualità (acquirente, prodotto, fonte). Accesso al Calibration Record incluso. Distribuzione solo a destinatario nominale.
- All series papers, on release
- Periodic briefings
- Calibration Record access
- Priority on new dossiers
Tier III · Sector
Sector Intelligence Retainer
Annual · quarterly cadence
Continuous coverage on a defined domain — wine premium, Italy macro, or applied geopolitics. Probability-weighted monitoring with domain-calibrated indices (buyer-quality for fairs, the Italy Fragility Index for macro), quarterly deep updates, ad-hoc briefings on trigger events, and a direct line to the Director. You work with the principal — not a junior desk.
Copertura continuativa su un dominio definito — vino premium, macro Italia o geopolitica applicata. Monitoraggio probabilistico con indici calibrati sul dominio (buyer-quality per le fiere, Italy Fragility Index per la macro), aggiornamenti trimestrali approfonditi, briefing ad-hoc su eventi-trigger e una linea diretta col Direttore. Lavori col principal — non con un desk junior.
- Defined-domain monitoring
- Quarterly deep updates
- Ad-hoc briefings on triggers
- Direct line to the Director
Tier IV · Advisory
Strategic Advisory Retainer
Annual · bespoke
A standing analytic partnership built around your decision calendar — direct, principal-level access to the Director. Commissioned analysis on demand, bespoke scenario and red-team work, and judgement on the questions your decisions turn on, all under the full FP3 method and §17 discipline. Engagement is project-capped against an agreed calendar, not 24/7 reachability: scope and response windows are fixed in the mandate, which is exactly why access is limited.
Una partnership analitica permanente costruita attorno al tuo calendario decisionale — accesso diretto, a livello principal, al Direttore. Analisi commissionata on-demand, scenari e red-team su misura, e giudizio sulle domande su cui ruotano le tue decisioni, sotto l'intero metodo FP3 e la disciplina §17. L'ingaggio è dimensionato per progetto su un calendario concordato, non reperibilità 24/7: scope e finestre di risposta sono fissati nel mandato — ed è esattamente per questo che l'accesso è limitato.
- Principal-level access to the Director
- Commissioned analysis & red-team on demand
- Scope & response windows fixed in mandate
- Confidential by mandate
▣ Limited to 4–6 clients · by design · single-author capacity, declared
Commissioned & bespoke analysis
One-off mandates outside the tiers above — due-diligence support, forensic intelligence, a specific scenario your decision turns on. Scoped and priced per brief.
Mandati one-off fuori dai tier sopra — supporto due-diligence, forensic intelligence, uno scenario specifico su cui ruota la tua decisione. Definiti e quotati per brief.
On request
02 · What you receive
The deliverable, not the noise
▣ Explicit probabilities
Every call carries a stated probability and an horizon tag — [0–3M] [3–12M] [12–24M] — not adjectives. You can act on a number; you cannot act on "likely".
▣ Scenarios & falsifiers
Base case, alternatives, and a black-swan line — each with the trigger that would move it, and the signal that would prove us wrong.
▣ Sourced & graded
Source mix disclosed, reliability graded. We paraphrase and attribute; we do not launder a single feed into a thesis.
▣ On the record
Forecasts are logged ex-ante, dated, and never edited after. Misses sit next to hits in the public Calibration Record.
03 · How we engage
From brief to delivery
Scoping call
A short confidential conversation to define the decision at stake, the horizon, and the verification criterion. No charge.
Mandate & terms
Written scope, deliverable, timeline and fee. NDA on request. For retainers, a defined domain and cadence.
Analysis
Built through the FP3 stack — human-led, augmentation-supported under §17 governance. Sources graded, scenarios weighted, the call falsified before it ships.
Delivery & record
Decision-ready briefing plus, where relevant, the extended paper. The forecast goes on the Calibration Record — ours to be judged by.
04 · Why us
We are judged by our record
The proof is the Calibration Record
Most analysis is unfalsifiable by design. Ours is logged before the outcome, scored after, and published with the misses intact. Read it before you engage.
La maggior parte dell’analisi è infalsificabile per costruzione. La nostra è registrata prima dell’esito, valutata dopo e pubblicata con gli errori intatti. Leggila prima di ingaggiarci.
Open the record →
▣ FP3 Analytical Posture · Precondizione di lettura / A precondition for the reader
FP3NEWS · Intelligence Analysis is a European and international entity with legal seat in Italy. Our culture is European and global: we do not favour any outcome. Our forecasts derive from data — through node-based protocols and AI systems — not from optimism or pessimism. When a trajectory appears severe for Italy, we are not voicing negativity: we describe a measured vector. Economic systems are interconnected: an adverse move for one node frequently corresponds to an opportunity for another — where there is relocation or disinvestment, growth often arises elsewhere (the UK, Northern Europe, third markets) in capital, tourism flows, and employment. We map the entire flow. Neither optimists nor pessimists. We take no side: we run the FP3 Method. Trajectories, not verdicts.
FP3NEWS · Intelligence Analysis è una realtà europea e internazionale con sede legale in Italia. La nostra cultura è europea e globale: non parteggiamo per alcun esito. Le nostre previsioni nascono dai dati — attraverso protocolli node-based e sistemi AI — non da ottimismo né da pessimismo. Quando una traiettoria appare severa per l'Italia, non esprimiamo negatività: descriviamo un vettore misurato. I sistemi economici sono interconnessi: un movimento sfavorevole a un nodo corrisponde frequentemente a un'opportunità in un altro — dove c'è delocalizzazione o disinvestimento, altrove (Regno Unito, Nord Europa, mercati terzi) si genera spesso crescita in capitali, flussi turistici e occupazione. Noi mappiamo l'intero flusso. Né ottimisti né pessimisti. Non parteggiamo: applichiamo i protocolli FP3. Traiettorie, non verdetti.
Neither optimists nor pessimists. We take no side: we run the FP3 Method. Trajectories, not verdicts.