FP3 Method is the analytical operating framework of the unit. It is the discipline through which raw information is transformed into a probabilistic assessment with declared confidence, pre-committed resolution criterion, and ex-post verification. FP3 Method governs how the unit thinks; it does not specify what the unit thinks about. Domain coverage (geopolitics, energy, political risk, etc.) is determined editorially; FP3 Method applies uniformly across domains.
FP3 Method is not an algorithm and not a software product. It is a human methodological discipline with structured modules, operative procedures, and quality controls. It can be supported by device-triangulated workflows under FP3 forecasting, but the analytical commitment is human and remains the responsibility of the unit's modular analytical architecture (the FP3 method).
FP3 Method is organised into seventeen sub-modules numbered m10 through m90, grouped into nine functional bands. Each band represents a distinct epistemic stage of the analytical pipeline. The full set of seventeen modules constitutes the Full Analytical Mode. A reduced subset constitutes the Deliberative Mode. A minimal critical subset constitutes the Tactical Mode, used for time-sensitive briefings.
Within each module band, operational implementation details (specific procedural steps, sub-checks, signature triggers, parameter values) are reserved under NDA. The band-level architecture above is sufficient for institutional methodology review.
Used for time-sensitive briefings where a probabilistic assessment is required within hours. Minimal critical subset: m10 (ingestion) · m22 (base-rate retrieval) · m40 (probability + §17) · m50 (resolution criterion) · m90 (Ledger entry). Red Team pass is logged as deferred. Confidence band is widened to reflect compressed analytical time.
Standard mode for editorial commentary and Tier-A short briefings. Includes Red Team pass (m60) and calibration audit (m80). Cross-domain consistency check is optional. Output carries declared confidence and committed resolution, but typically not the full scenario decomposition published in PULSE INSIDER papers.
Used for every numbered PULSE INSIDER paper and for Restricted Reserved dossiers. Complete module pipeline. Mandatory Red Team. Mandatory case-memory cross-paper consistency check. Mandatory calibration metacognitive audit on final draft. Mandatory Calibration Ledger entry before distribution. This is the production-standard mode for the unit's intelligence output.
FP3 Method uses the standard Admiralty source grading system (NATO STANAG 2511 lineage), with each source rated on two dimensions: source reliability (A through F) and information credibility (1 through 6). A source carrying an A1 rating is a fully reliable source providing fully corroborated information; an F6 rating indicates an untested source providing implausible information. The combined two-letter-number rating travels with the source through the entire FP3 Method pipeline.
Public papers include source ratings at the band level (Tier-1 / Tier-2 / Tier-3 mix percentages). Reserved papers include full Admiralty grade per cited source. Internal unit records retain the full grading rationale per source for every paper produced.
Specific Admiralty thresholds for "publish-eligible source" status, anti-honey-trap filters, and adversarial-source detection heuristics are reserved (source integrity H2 documentation, NDA only).
Every published FP3 Method analytical output carries the following mandatory commitments:
Outputs that cannot carry all eight commitments are not published as FP3 Method-grade analytical products. They may circulate internally as working notes but do not enter the public Archive or the Calibration Ledger.