FP3NEWS · Editorial Track Record
Predictions & Outcomes
A dated public register · prediction precedes outcome · resolved on published evidence · updated 20/07/2026
Every forecast on this record is certified by the date of the document that contains it — a dossier, a working session, a dated communication — so that publication precedes outcome. Nothing is scored after the fact; each entry states its original wording, its dated source and its outcome. The edge FP3 claims is not a ranking but an architecture: registered press + a public outcomes register + certification by date + §17 falsifiability + Italy-macro depth + bilingual delivery. The resolved sample is small and growing — and we say so.
40resolved correctly ✓
173open, awaiting outcome
215on register
2missed
95%resolved hit-rate40 of 42 resolved · small-N, stated openly
173open, untested80% of the register
m50latency discipline≥⅓ of entries at <12-month horizon
The hit-rate is computed over resolved items only (40 confirmed + 2 missed); the 173 open entries are untested and can move it. No Brier score: outcomes are binary, on published evidence, at resolution date. Anteriority proof and specifics available on request.
Confirmed — selected
Football · FIFA World Cup 2026issued: 08/06/2026 (pre-tournament) · scenario tree 18/07/2026 (eve of final)Confirmed
Spain champions as the top pick of a distributional call (Spain 16% · France 13%) logged before the 11 June kickoff; on the eve of the final, a pre-committed scenario tree assigned Spain 0.56 against Argentina, with the disconfirming branch published in advance.
Outcome — 19/07/2026: Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time (Ferran Torres, 106'), MetLife Stadium — second title after 2010. Both the pre-tournament modal pick and branch A of the final tree are realised. Symmetric §17 note on record: the «first-time winner ~36%» branch did not materialise.
Dated sources: analytical session 08/06/2026 (pre-kickoff) · PULSE FLASH «The Asymmetric Final» 18/07/2026 · outcome: FIFA · ANSA · Sky, 19–20/07/2026 (Tier-1). Register codes: MONDIALE-2026-DISTR · FINALE-SCEN-180726.
Geopolitics · USA · Presidential electionissued: October 2024 (reserved study) · communicated 01/11/2024Confirmed
Donald Trump to win the 5 November 2024 US presidential election — thesis developed in a reserved study of September–October 2024 and communicated to ~20 contacts on 1 November 2024, four days before the vote, while the race was rated a coin-flip by mainstream forecasters (Silver · Economist ≈ 50/50) amid a late surge of Democratic optimism.
Outcome — 05/11/2024: Trump wins with 312 electoral votes, sweeps all 7 swing states and the popular-vote plurality. Direction confirmed.
Dated source: reserved FP3 · FreePress3News study, Sep–Oct 2024 · communication to ~20 contacts 01/11/2024 · Director Iacopo Mutascio. Anteriority self-attested (dated reserved communication); the outcome is public and certain, the origin date is attested by the Director, not by a third party — explicit §17 flag; proof on request.
Geopolitics · USA–Iran · Hormuzissued: 16/05/2026 (genesis 30/03/2026)Confirmed
The ceasefire as managed friction, not peace: resumption of significant US kinetic action against Iran within 30–90 days [P = 0.52], with no structural normalisation of the Strait of Hormuz — issued while the deal was being hailed as a diplomatic victory.
Outcome — 07–08/07/2026: CENTCOM strikes 80+ targets in Iran; Iran retaliates on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain; the ceasefire is declared "over". Above §17 threshold.
Dated source: analytical sessions 30/03/2026 & 16/05/2026 (per-window table, §17 threshold) · PI-005.
Politics · Referendumissued: March 2026, pre-voteConfirmed
NO victory in the constitutional referendum on justice reform, 52–54% band.
Outcome — NO at 53.74% (22–23/03/2026). Direction and magnitude within band.
Dated source: PULSE INSIDER 005bis + pre-blackout analytical sessions.
Geopolitics · USA–Italyissued: March–April 2026Confirmed
USA–Italy trajectory rupture after the Sigonella denial: the Trump–Meloni freeze as a structural, not episodic, consequence.
Outcome — Trump–Meloni freeze materialised and documented; confirmation registered 29/06/2026, thesis genesis certified to March/April 2026.
Dated source: March–April 2026 papers and analytical sessions.
Expanding register. Predictions documented in dated working sessions and communications are added as original sources are retrieved and quoted. Each entry can be verified by opening the source document indicated. The full historical documentation remains available in the archive; positioning and methodology are stated in the disclosure and the method.