GEOPOLITICS / SYSTEMIC RISK GRID

● LIVELLO FONTI PUBBLICHE

FP3 Method source architecture · primary/public institutional networks relevant to this desk. Source access, update cadence and licensing differ by provider.

UNresolutions · humanitarian / diplomatic dataEU COUNCILsanctions · foreign policy decisionsNATOalliance posture · official releasesUNHCRdisplacement / refugee dataWORLD BANKcountry · trade · development indicatorsGDACSglobal disaster / humanitarian shocks
FP3 METHOD: SOURCE → OBSERVATION → MATCH → SIGNAL → THESIS → FORECAST → REGISTER → RESOLUTION. External source ≠ FP3 endorsement; external sensor ≠ FP3-owned sensor.
FP3NEWSCOMMISSIONED INTELLIGENCE
FP3 METHOD · GEOPOLITICS

FP3 Geopolitical Intelligence

Commissioned geopolitical intelligence costruita sulla stessa disciplina di scenari, trigger, probabilità e riscontro usata nei dossier pubblici.

I dossier pubblici restano proof-of-work editoriale. Il cliente commissiona una domanda nuova e separata; non acquista conclusioni, copertura o accesso.
01 · GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Country & Corridor Risk Brief

Dal Mar Rosso al Mediterraneo, frontiere, alleanze e shock: scenari per decisioni aziendali e istituzionali.

  • country/corridor map
  • base/upside/downside
  • sanctions & policy triggers
  • supply-chain exposure
  • 30/90/180-day watch
BUYERS · companies · logistics · trade associations · institutions
Discuss a brief →
02 · STRATEGIC POSTURE

Alliance & Force-Posture Monitor

Separare capacità annunciata da capacità dispiegata; leggere posture, procurement, basi, droni, spazio e cyber.

  • force posture
  • industrial capacity
  • procurement signals
  • alliance divergence
  • early warning
BUYERS · defence industry · research offices · institutional affairs
Discuss a brief →
03 · BORDER & MOBILITY

Border / Migration Scenario Lab

Scenari su mobilità, frontiere, turismo, lavoro e redistribuzione dei flussi.

  • route scenarios
  • policy trigger map
  • capacity constraints
  • economic spillovers
  • resolution criteria
BUYERS · transport · tourism · institutions · associations
Discuss a brief →
04 · EXECUTIVE WATCH

Geopolitical Executive Watch

Monitoraggio ricorrente di una domanda strategica, con aggiornamenti quando cambiano i trigger.

  • weekly/monthly note
  • trigger dashboard
  • scenario probability update
  • board briefing
  • red-team review
BUYERS · CEO · strategy · risk · public affairs
Discuss a brief →
FP3 METHOD · DELIVERY PROTOCOL

Question → Evidence → Scenario → Decision → Resolution.

01 QUESTION
decisione e obiettivo
02 EVIDENCE
fonti e qualità
03 SCENARIO
range, trigger, falsifier
04 DECISION
brief operativo
05 RESOLUTION
update e verifica
Commissioned work separato dall'attività editoriale e dagli accrediti stampa. · direzione@fp3news.com